Capital Safety Check Explained

The Capital Safety Check verifies whether your strategy can survive its worst-case net BUY accumulation without running out of EUR.

Key Concepts

Max Net Buys Required

The highest value of (executed BUYs - executed SELLs) reached during the simulation.

This represents the maximum net position the strategy will accumulate before executed SELLs reduce it.

This is the metric that best approximates worst-case capital pressure, because:

EUR outflows occur only on executed BUYs
Capital is only recovered when SELLs actually execute

Theoretical EUR Required

Max net buys x BUY amount

This is the authoritative capital requirement.

If your allocated EUR covers this amount, the strategy is capital-safe by design, regardless of market sequence.

Peak EUR Required (Actual)

The maximum EUR drawdown observed during the simulation period.

This value depends on the historical price path and may be lower than the theoretical requirement, but cannot be relied upon for future safety.

Additional Context Metrics

Max Consecutive BUY Triggers Before SELL

The largest number of consecutive BUY signals that occurred before a SELL signal appeared.

This measures how often the market produces repeated drop signals without offering a rise signal in between.

A high value indicates stronger BUY clustering pressure
This can increase the chance of ignored BUY triggers if your EUR buffer is tight

This is a signal clustering metric. It is not the same as Max Net Buys Required.

Max Consecutive SELL Triggers Before BUY

The largest number of consecutive SELL signals that occurred before a BUY signal appeared.

This indicates how often the market produces repeated rise signals without offering a drop signal in between.

A high value can create many SELL signals while you may still be building inventory
This often correlates with ignored SELL triggers due to insufficient inventory

This is also a signal sequence metric. It is not a direct capital requirement metric.

Streaks vs Net Saldo (Important Distinction)

Aurono distinguishes between signal streaks and net trigger saldo. They answer different questions and must not be confused.

Example Signal Sequence

Assume the following sequence of BUY and SELL signals over time: [ BUY, BUY, BUY, SELL, SELL, BUY, BUY, SELL ]

Streaks (Signal Clustering)

Max BUY Streak Before SELL

This measures how many BUY signals occur in a row before a SELL signal appears.

From the example:

BUY, BUY, BUY — streak of 3 SELL, SELL BUY, BUY — streak of 2 SELL

Max BUY streak = 3

This tells you:

How aggressively BUY signals cluster
How quickly EUR may be consumed if buys are executable

It does not care whether:

You had enough EUR
The SELLs actually executed

It is purely about signal sequence.

Max SELL Streak Before BUY

This measures how many SELL signals occur in a row before a BUY signal appears.

From the example:

SELL, SELL — streak of 2

Max SELL streak = 2

This tells you:

How often SELL signals cluster
Why many SELLs may be ignored early due to insufficient inventory

Again, this is signal-only, not execution-aware.

Net Trigger Saldo (Execution Pressure)

Now assume all BUYs and SELLs execute for simplicity.

We compute a running balance:

BUY — +1
SELL — -1

Running Net Saldo

Assume starting capital of €500 with a buy amount of €100 and sell amount of €100:

Step	Signal	Net Saldo	Free EUR	What happens
1	BUY	1	€400	€100 spent on buy
2	BUY	2	€300	Another €100 spent
3	BUY	3	€200	Peak capital pressure
4	SELL	2	€300	€100 returned from sell
5	SELL	1	€400	Another €100 returned
6	BUY	2	€300	€100 spent again
7	BUY	3	€200	Back to peak pressure
8	SELL	2	€300	€100 returned

Max Net BUY Saldo

The highest net saldo reached: 3

At that point, the strategy held 3 more BUYs than SELLs and free capital was at its lowest (€200). This is the number that determines your capital requirement:

Max net buys (3) × buy amount (€100) = €300 theoretical EUR required

Since €500 ≥ €300 → capital sufficient.

Max Net SELL Saldo

The lowest saldo reached: 1

This represents the point where the strategy had unwound most of its position. It’s informational — it doesn’t affect capital requirements, but helps you understand the strategy’s sell behaviour.

Key Difference (Summary)

Metric	What it measures	What it affects
BUY / SELL streaks	Signal clustering	Timing, ignored triggers
Net trigger saldo	Executed accumulation	Capital requirements

Important:

A SELL signal can reset a BUY streak without reducing net saldo
A SELL reduces net saldo only if it actually executes

This is why:

You can have many SELL signals
But still see a high Max Net Buys Required

Especially when ACB protection blocks SELL execution.

Why Capital Safety Uses Net Saldo

The Capital Safety Check uses Max Net Buys Required, not streaks, because:

EUR leaves only on executed BUYs
EUR returns only on executed SELLs
Signal order alone is insufficient to determine capital risk

Streaks provide context, net saldo provides guarantees.

When Is Capital Sufficient?

The simulation shows “Capital sufficient” when:

Allocated EUR ≥ Max Net Buys × Buy Amount

This means: even in the worst-case sequence of buys without sells, your capital covers it.

Why Are Some BUY Triggers Still Skipped?

Seeing “Capital sufficient” does not mean every BUY trigger will execute. Triggers can be skipped for other reasons:

Cooldown active — the strategy is waiting between same-side trades
ACB protection blocking sells — if sells can’t execute, capital isn’t freed up for the next buy
Concurrent buy limits — the strategy already has the maximum number of open positions

The capital check confirms your starting allocation is enough. Whether individual triggers execute depends on the full strategy rules, not just capital.